Fort Collins has long enjoyed a reputation as one of Colorado’s most desirable places to live—anchored by Colorado State University, surrounded by outdoor recreation, and known for a strong sense of community. For decades, growth felt almost automatic. People came for school, stayed for lifestyle, and brought businesses, families, and capital with them.
But the most recent data presented to City Council in early 2026 paints a more nuanced picture. Fort Collins is still growing—but how it’s growing, who is moving in (and out), and where regional momentum is shifting all matter more than ever.
This isn’t a story of decline. It’s a story of transition—and understanding it matters if you care about housing, schools, workforce stability, or the long-term health of Northern Colorado.
Slowing Migration Doesn’t Mean Losing Relevance—But It Does Change the Math
One of the clearest signals from the Common Sense Institute’s Snapshot of Fort Collins’ Demographic Future is that net migration into the Fort Collins metro area is materially lower than it was pre-2020.
Between 2009 and 2019, Fort Collins averaged roughly 4,500 net new residents per year. By 2025, that number had fallen by approximately 26%. While migration is projected to rebound modestly through 2027—peaking around 6,300 net new residents—it is expected to decline again thereafter, falling to roughly 3,600 annually by 2050 .
This matters because Fort Collins’ modern growth model has relied heavily on in-migration rather than natural population increase. Birth rates are slowing, the population is aging, and deaths are rising gradually. That combination puts more pressure on attracting and retaining residents to sustain economic momentum.
In short: Fort Collins is still desirable—but the margin for error is thinner than it used to be.
The Regional Shift: Weld County Is Becoming the Growth Engine
Perhaps the most consequential trend isn’t happening inside Fort Collins, but just east of it.
Weld County—and the Greeley metro area in particular—is now the primary driver of population growth in Northern Colorado. Projections suggest that as early as 2026, the Greeley MSA will surpass the Fort Collins MSA in total population. By 2050, the gap could widen to 100,000 residents .
Why is this happening?
Three forces stand out:
- Housing affordability
The average home price in the Fort Collins MSA reached approximately $549,000 by late 2025—slightly higher than Denver and nearly $50,000 more than Greeley. Rent followed a similar path, with Fort Collins surpassing Denver’s average rent for the first time in early 2025. - Demographics favoring families
Weld County has a higher share of married households, households with children, and—critically—is the only county in Colorado experiencing a rising birth rate. That gives it stronger long-term organic growth potential. - Job alignment with cost of living
Greeley’s labor market skews more heavily toward construction, manufacturing, logistics, and energy—industries where wages often align more comfortably with local housing costs.
This doesn’t mean Fort Collins is “losing” to Greeley. It means Northern Colorado is becoming a more polycentric region, where different cities play different roles.
Fort Collins’ Economic Identity Is Shifting Toward Knowledge and Services
While Weld County absorbs population growth, Fort Collins remains the region’s economic brain.
At least one-third of all jobs in Northern Colorado are located in Fort Collins, and in several sectors—Professional Services, Education, Information & Media, Arts and Recreation—the city accounts for more than half of all regional employment .
This concentration reflects Fort Collins’ core strengths:
- Colorado State University and affiliated research
- Bioscience and medical device companies
- Aerospace and advanced manufacturing R&D
- Professional, scientific, and technical services
- A growing remote and hybrid workforce
Notably, one in five Fort Collins residents works from home, the highest rate in the region. That reinforces the city’s role as a hub for knowledge workers—many of whom may not be physically tied to local job sites but still participate in the local economy.
However, this economic profile also introduces vulnerability.
High-skill, degree-heavy labor markets are less accessible to workers without higher education—and many of these jobs still fall short of supporting a family when measured against Fort Collins’ cost of living.
The Workforce Paradox: Jobs Exist, But Not All Are Livable
The Labor Market Profile highlights a growing tension across Northern Colorado: job availability does not always translate into household sustainability.
Across six key opportunity sectors—Information Technology, Business Services, Aerospace, Bioscience, Manufacturing, and Food Processing—most job postings require at least a bachelor’s degree. In IT alone, more than 70% of postings carry that requirement.
Yet when wages are compared to a living-wage benchmark for a two-adult household with two children, only one sector (Information Technology) consistently clears the threshold.
Among the 12 occupations most in demand across multiple sectors:
- Only 4 typically exceed the living-wage benchmark
- 8 fall below it—even though they are among the most commonly posted jobs
This gap explains a lot of what’s happening regionally. Workers who don’t fit the high-education profile increasingly choose to live where housing costs are lower, even if that means commuting.
Fort Collins as a Net Importer of Labor
One underappreciated dynamic: Fort Collins imports labor every day.
Roughly 50,000 workers commute into the city daily, accounting for nearly 60% of all jobs located within city limits. While many Fort Collins residents still live and work locally, outward commuting has increased since 2020.
This pattern reinforces Fort Collins’ role as an employment center—but it also means:
- Traffic and infrastructure planning matter more
- Housing supply decisions affect regional labor access
- Workforce shortages can’t be solved city-by-city anymore
Northern Colorado is operating as a single labor shed, whether policies acknowledge it or not.
What This Means for Housing, Schools, and City Finances
Slower migration and changing demographics ripple outward.
Housing:
Demand isn’t disappearing—it’s shifting. Fort Collins remains highly desirable, but price sensitivity is higher. Without additional supply at attainable price points, growth will continue to spill east.
Schools:
With fewer births and slower in-migration, K–12 enrollment growth is expected to flatten. That has downstream impacts on funding, staffing, and facility planning.
Municipal budgets:
Slower population growth means slower growth in revenue—but service costs don’t slow at the same pace, especially in an aging community.
These realities were a core reason City Council reviewed these trends ahead of its 2026 retreat: the next decade will require more intentional trade-offs than the last.
The Bottom Line: Fort Collins Isn’t Falling Behind—It’s Maturing
The data does not suggest Fort Collins is in decline. It suggests the city is graduating from its growth adolescence into a more complex phase of maturity.
Fort Collins is becoming:
- Less of a “cheaper Denver”
- More of a specialized knowledge economy
- Increasingly interconnected with its regional neighbors
- More sensitive to housing and workforce alignment
The cities that thrive in this phase are the ones that recognize reality early—and plan accordingly.
For residents, business owners, and investors, understanding these forces is the first step toward making better decisions in a changing Northern Colorado landscape.